Many EU states fear sophisticated weapons will end up in the wrong hands
In a conflict which worsens by the week, this is a week when critical decisions on the next steps in Syria must be made.
On Monday, meetings of foreign ministers in Brussels and
Paris could pave the way for more weapons to be supplied to the
opposition or more arm-twisting to push all sides towards the
negotiating table.
In Brussels, EU foreign ministers need to decide whether to
renew a package of sanctions on Syria, including an arms embargo which
expires at the end of this week.
Key players, including the UK and France, have been lobbying for months for an easing of the embargo.
But there is strong resistance from other members, as well as
EU officials, who fear that channelling more arms to the opposition
will only worsen violence that has already cost at least 80,000 lives.
“Start Quote
We must make clear that if the regime does not negotiate seriously at the Geneva conference, no option is off the table”
William Hague
UK Foreign Secretary
There is also mounting concern that weapons could make
their way into the arsenals of militant groups Europe does not want to
empower.
The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, has added his voice to
those urging Europe to ease restrictions on military support for the
opposition.
"Fine for him to say but what is Washington willing to do?" one European foreign minister opposed to lifting the ban told me.
The US has so far refused persistent calls to arm the rebels.
Geneva conference
On Monday, Mr Kerry meets his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Paris.
Their talks are expected to focus on plans for the first
conference to bring together representatives of the Syrian government
and opposition.
Many obstacles remain in the way of the peace conference planned by the US and Russia
Diplomats hope the gathering can be held next month in Geneva,
but continuing rifts over who will be invited, and under what
conditions, still stand in the way.
On Sunday, Syria's Foreign Minister, Walid Muallem, announced
that Damascus was ready "in principle" to send a delegation to Geneva.
But in Istanbul, where members of various opposition
groupings are meeting to choose a new leadership for the National
Coalition, various conditions are still being voiced.
Many opposition figures still insist they will not sit with
members of President Bashar al-Assad's regime unless it is clear he will
be stepping down.
There was even a suggestion the opposition would not attend unless the EU arms embargo was lifted.
Pressure on opposition
The meetings in Brussels and Paris are linked.
One of the main concerns in many European capitals is the
impact any lifting or easing of the EU arms embargo might have on the
fragile effort to fashion a political transition.
In a statement to Parliament last week, Foreign Secretary
William Hague emphasised: "The United Kingdom and France are both
strongly of the view that changes to the embargo are not separate from
the diplomatic work, but essential to it."
William Hague is to join with the French to table a call for watering down the arms embargo
"We must make clear that if the regime does not negotiate
seriously at the Geneva conference, no option is off the table," he
added.
The UK insists that, as yet, it has made no decision on whether to arm the rebels.
But various options are being suggested in advance of the
Brussels deadline including the distribution of weapons through the
National Coalition, recognised by many Western and Arab states as the
sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people.
Such a move would also be an effort to strengthen the
opposition alliance's bargaining position at any future talks vis-a-vis
more extremist groups as well as the government.
The National Coalition is also under pressure to resolve its
well-publicised divisions and expand its membership to bring in more
liberal elements as well as representatives of the Free Syrian Army.
Jockeying for position among an array of Syrian groups also
reflects interventions by key backers - like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as
well as Turkey and the US - to try to forge an opposition to their
liking.
Weapons contract
This protracted debate over arming the rebels has been given
added weight by the Syrian military's recent advances on the ground, and
its solid support from allies like Iran and Russia.
Well-trained fighters from the Lebanese Shia Islamist
movement, Hezbollah, have joined battle with government forces fighting
to regain control of the strategic western town of Qusair, which lies on
vital supply routes for both the rebels and the government.
“Start Quote
The reality is Britain and France
don't have those weapons in their armouries now and, even if they were
available on the market, you would need to send in foreign forces to
help use them”
European foreign minister
And Moscow insists it must continue to honour its arms
contracts with Damascus, including the provision of the powerful S-300
air defence missile batteries.
Media reports at the weekend that the contract was cancelled
after a meeting between Russian and Israeli leaders have been denied.
"It's more than a bit fanciful that where John Kerry failed
to persuade Vladimir Putin to abandon the S-300s sale to Syria, Benjamin
Netanyahu will have succeeded," says Syria specialist Michael Weiss.
Embargo extension
Arguments over the arms embargo are complicated by the reality
that the only possible game-changer is more sophisticated weaponry the
opposition may not, at present, be able to operate.
"The reality is Britain and France don't have those weapons
in their armouries now and, even if they were available on the market,
you would need to send in foreign forces to help use them," commented
the European foreign minister.
If there is no consensus on amending or extending the arms
embargo, a package of other sanctions putting pressure on President
Assad and his supporters would also disappear.
That is an outcome EU member states want to avoid.
So, while divisions persist, other options being considered include a short extension to see how any negotiations play out.
This week is likely to end up being no different from most
weeks in this deepening war - the only agreement on all sides is on how
far away a real solution is.